技术进步对城镇化率的影响研究——基于技术效率变化和技术进步变化

Research on Influence of Technological Progress on Urbanization Rate:Based on Technological Efficiency Changes and Technological Progress Changes

技术进步将扩大产业结构中第三产业比重,有利于城镇化率的提高。本文利用2005-2016年的省级面板数据,将技术进步细分为技术效率变化和技术进步变化,比较分析二者对城镇化影响的差异性,发现技术效率变化和技术进步变化显著地提高了城镇化率,但技术效率变化提高的幅度远小于技术进步变化提高的幅度;进一步分析表明,第三产业集聚下技术进步变化对城镇化的影响较大且显著,第三产业不集聚下技术效率变化对城镇化的影响虽小但显著。所以,在推进城镇化的过程中不仅要关注技术效率变化与技术进步变化的影响,还要关注第三产业集聚与不集聚在影响中的差异性。

Technological progress will further improve the proportion of tertiary industry in the industrial structure,facilitating the improvement of urbanization rate.With application of 2005-2016 provincial panel data,the paper divides technological progress into technological efficiency changes and technological progress changes,compares and analyzes their differences of influence on urbanization,finding that technological efficiency changes and technological progress changes have significantly improved the urbanization rate while the improvement amplitude of technological efficiency changes is far smaller than that of technological progress changes;further analysis indicates that technological progress changes under agglomeration of tertiary industry exert greater and significant effects on urbanization while technological efficiency changes under non-agglomeration of tertiary industry exert small but significant effects on urbanization.Therefore,during the promotion process of urbanization,it is not only necessary to pay attention to the influence of technological efficiency changes and technological progress changes,but also necessary to attach importance to the influence differences between agglomeration of tertiary industry and non-agglomeration of tertiary industry.