多元视角下城市规模层级演进与重构——以山东省为例

The Reconstruction of Urban Population Hierarchy from Multidimensional Perspectives:A Case Study of Shandong Province

作者以山东省为案例,将城市体系的演化规律、农民的城乡迁移决策与政府的政策调控相结合,从多维视角探究了城市规模结构的变动趋势。与沿海部分省份城市体系相比,山东省的两个核心城市——济南和青岛的规模相对较小,而中小城市发育较好,城市规模结构比较均衡。考虑到山东省城乡人口迁移规律及农民进城落户意愿,高位序的城市发展潜力较大,山东省政府也希望并鼓励核心城市进一步发展壮大,因此济南、青岛人口规模提升的空间很大。相比较而言,数量众多的小城镇虽然人口规模存在上升空间,但发展潜力不大。作者建议,通过有序撤县建市、探索有利于不同城市之间人口迁移的新制度、增强农村土地管理制度的弹性等措施,促进山东省城市规模结构进一步优化。

Based on urban evolutionary patterns,migration of rural workers and government policies,the authors use Shandong Province as a case to examine the evolution of urban population.Results show:In comparison to some coastal provinces,the two core cities(Jinan and Qingdao)are relatively small,and there is a large number of small and medium-sized cities in Shandong Province.The population structure are well balanced.Considering the rural-urban migration trend and rural workers willingness to migrate to cities,big cities have a greater population growth potential.The provincial government of Shandong also encourages the development of the two core cities.A comprehensive analysis shows that the urban population of Jinan and Qingdao has greater potential for population growth than that of small and medium-sized cities and towns,which are larger in number.The authors suggest a path to optimize urban structure of Shandong Province through turning counties into cities gradually,exploring new regulations to facilitate migration between cities,and strengthening the flexibility of rural land management.