佳木斯市春季旱涝灾害统计特征及旱涝发生趋势预测

The Characters of Drought and Flood Disasters in Spring and the Model to Predict the Tendency in Jiamusi Region

【目的】研究全球气候变化背景条件下佳木斯市旱涝灾害演变规律。【方法】以1951年以来佳木斯市春季逐日降水资料及国家气候中心74项环流指数实时资料为依据,用降水距平百分率Ri和Z指数法分析佳木斯市春季旱涝类型、出现频率及时空分布特点并建立春季降水预报方程。【结果】1961—2015年,佳木斯市所属县(市)出现大涝和大旱的频率在72%～96%,1996年以前出现大旱频率较高,而1996年以后出现大涝的概率更大;佳木斯市在年降水量减少的同时,春季3—5月降水变化呈上升趋势,在55年的线性变化趋势中,每10年增加约9.6%;从地域分布看,佳木斯西部地区比东部更易发生旱涝且转换更加频繁;佳木斯春季旱涝趋势主要受前一年春冬季大气环流的影响,以Minitab 16筛选的环流特征量为因子,建立春季降水量预报方程,其预测春季旱涝类型准确率为63.6%。【结论】研究结果可为佳木斯市春季旱涝灾害的短期气候预测提供参考依据。

[Purpose]To investigate the evolution law of drought and flood disaster in Jiamusi region under the background of global climate change.[Method]The daily precipitation data in spring of Jiamusi since 1951 and the real-time data of 74 circulation index from the National Climate Center,Ri of which is on behalf of the precipitation anomaly percentage and Z index method are used to analyze the spring drought and flood type,frequency and spatial and temporal distribution characteristic and to establish the equation of spring precipitation forecast.[Result]The frequency of drought and flood catastrophe was between 72%and 96%during 1961-2015 in the city of Jiamusi.Before 1996,there was a higher frequency of drought,and the floods occurred probability of large after 1996;at the same time of annual precipitation reduction,in spring from March to May,the precipitation showed an upward trend,in the linear trend of 55 years,increased by about 9.6%each 10 years;from the geographical distribution,the western region of Jiamusi administrative division was more prone to droughts and floods and more frequent conversion than in the east;according to the above information,Minitab 16 was used to carry out relevant census that the trend of drought and flood was mainly affected by spring and winter atmospheric circulation of last year.Therefore,according to the model which is used to predict trend of spring drought and occurrence of flood,the accuracy is 63.6%.[Conclusion]The results can provide a reference of disaster for short-term climate prediction in Jiamusi.