粮食增产与农民增收一致性关系研究

A Study on Correlation between Grain Production Increase and Peasants' Income Increase

粮食增产与农民增收不仅是"三农"问题的工作重点,还关系到中国经济平稳发展、社会安定。明晰粮食增产与农民增收之间的关系是评价中国现行粮食政策能否有效带动农民种粮积极性的关键。通过研究可以发现,粮食增产对于粮食主产区农户增收有正向作用,二者存在一致性。从其他影响因素来看,中央财政支农资金相较于地方财政支农资金对农民增收帮助更大,粮食进口量扩大没有损害中国种粮农户利益,投保农业保险与农民收入呈负相关关系,城镇化建设对粮食主产区农户收入无显著影响。有关部门应采取切实有效的配套措施,使种粮农户的收入进一步提高。

Grain yield increase and peasants income increase are the working emphasis of the“agriculture,rural areas and farmers”.They not only relate to the stable development of Chinese economy but also affect social stability.Identify the relationship between grain yield increase and peasants income increase is the key element to evaluate whether grain policy can enhance the farming enthusiasm.The paper extracts the panel data of the thirteen main production areas between 1999 and 2013,then empirically analyses the relationship between grain yield increase and peasants income increase by common correlated effect mean group model.The research shows that grain yield increase contributes to peasants income increase and financial funds for agriculture of central government help peasants income increase more than local government.Grain import has no adverse effect on Chinese peasants.There was a negative correlation between agricultural insurance and peasants income.Urbanization had no significant effect on peasants income of the main grain production areas.