中国债务率缺口估计及其影响因素分析

Estimation of the Chinese Debt Rate Gap and Analysis of Influencing Factors

首先,运用贝叶斯方法估计不可观测成分模型得到债务率缺口,对比贝叶斯债务率缺口与国际清算银行(Bank for International Settlements,BIS)采用HP滤波法估计的债务率缺口,发现贝叶斯债务率缺口与BIS债务率缺口变化同步且方向一致,其中贝叶斯债务率缺口更贴近现实经济,二者均反映出当前我国债务率缺口呈现上升趋势。其次,通过对比不同国家的债务率缺口,发现我国债务率缺口较高,随后分析贝叶斯债务率缺口与经济变量的关系,发现通过贷款利率调节过高的债务率缺口较为有效。最后,本文建议政府通过"供给侧改革"、国有企业改革、完善住房制度以及调节贷款利率等政策降低我国债务率缺口。

Firstly,we use Bayesian estimation to estimate unobserved-component model to get debt rate gap.Comparing the Bayesian debt rate gap with the debt rate gap estimated by BIS via HP filtering,we found that Bayesian debt rate gap changes together with BIS debt rate gap and their direction is similar.But Bayesian debt rate gap is closer to actual economy.The two gaps reflect that Chinese debt rate gap is rising currently.Secondly,through the international comparison of the debt rate gap between representative countries,we found that Chinese debt rate gap is high.Then through the analysis of the relationship between Bayesian debt rate gap and economic variables,we found that it’s effective to regulate debt rate gap by the lending interest rate.Finally,the government can effectively reduce the debt rate gap by the structural reform of the supply front,state-owned enterprise reform,improving housing system and adjusting the lending interest rate.