房价上涨、要素流动与制造业升级

Housing Price Rise,Factor Flow and Upgrading of Manufacturing Industry

本文将资本和劳动两种要素流动纳入统一框架中,研究房价上涨如何作用于制造业升级。利用2003—2016年我国30个省区市面板数据,在控制内生性问题情况下,本文采用系统GMM检验房价上涨对制造业升级的影响。结果发现,房价上涨对制造业升级具有显著的负向作用,从边际效应来看,房价增长率增加一个标准差(0.09),将导致制造业高度化指标下降0.14,房价上涨对制造业升级的抑制作用明显。进一步研究发现,房价上涨显著降低了制造业企业研发投入,进而抑制制造业升级。由于推力和拉力的作用,房价上涨对劳动力流动的影响不确定。本文为制造业创新升级和房地产市场调控提供了重要的政策启示。

In this paper,the two elements of capital and labor flow are incorporated into a unified framework to study how price rise affects manufacturing upgrading.Based on the panel data of 30 provinces and cities in China in 2003-2016,this paper uses system GMM to test the impact of price rise on the upgrading of the manufacturing industry under the condition of controlling the endogenous nature.The result shows that the rising price of house prices has a significant negative effect on the upgrading of manufacturing industry.From the marginal effect,the fluctuation of the house price growth rate increased by a standard deviation(0.09),which will lead to a 0.14 decline in the index of the advanced manufacturing industry,and the effect of house price rise to the upgrading of the manufacturing industry is obvious.Further research shows that the rise in housing prices significantly reduce the R&D investment of manufacturing enterprises,thereby inhibiting the upgrading of manufacturing industry.Because of the effect of push and pull,the impact of rising house prices on labor mobility is uncertain.This paper provides important policy implications for the upgrading of manufacturing industry and the regulation of real estate market.