关键行业对中国金属消费的影响——基于跨行业视角的综合分析

The impact of key industries on China's metal consumption: Based on comprehensive analysis from inter-sectoral perspective

自21世纪以来,工业化和城镇化不断加快,中国经济快速增长,伴随着金属资源密集开采与快速消耗,资源承载力的下降以及大量消耗带来的环境问题已经成为制约中国经济可持续发展的重要因素。提高金属资源综合利用效率和水平,降低金属资源消费强度是实现金属资源可持续发展的重要途径。基于产业部门金属的前后向关联确定影响金属消费的关键产业部门,结合投入产出和敏感性分析研究影响关键产业部门金属消费强度的主要影响路径。研究结果表明:金属矿采选业、金属冶炼及压延加工业、金属制品业、电气机械及器材制造业、通用专用设备制造业以及仪器仪表及办公文化机械制造业是影响中国金属消费的六大关键行业,上游金属矿采选业不仅受到直接生产关系的技术系数变化的影响,而且也受到间接生产技术系数变化的影响,中下游行业主要受到行业间的直接影响。固定资本形成是影响关键行业金属消费强度最大的需求因素,家庭消费等其他需求因素对于不同关键行业的影响路径和程度存在差异。

Since the beginning of the 21st century,with the acceleration of industrialization and urbanization,China's economy has grown rapidly,and with the intensive mining and rapid consumption of metal resources,the decline in resource carrying capacity and the environmental problem caused by tremendous consumption have become major constraints on the sustainable development of the China's economy.Improving the comprehensive utilization efficiency and level of metal resources and reducing the consumption intensity of metal resources are important ways to achieve sustainable development of metal resources.The present study identifies the key industrial sectors affecting metal consumption based on the forward-looking linkages of metals in the industrial sectors,combines input-output and sensitivity analysis to study the main impact paths affecting metal consumption intensity in key industrial sectors.The research findings show that the 6 key industries affecting China's metal consumption include the mining of metal ores,manufacturing and processing of metals,manufacturing of fabricated metal products,manufacturing of general and special purpose machinery,manufacturing of electrical machinery and apparatus,and manufacturing of measuring instruments and machinery for cultural activities and office work.In the key industries,the upstream mining of metal ores is not only affected by changes in the technical coefficients of the direct production relations but also affected by changes in the indirect production technology.The midstream and downstream industries are mainly affected by the intersectoral transitions.The formation of fixed capital is the largest demand factor that affects the metal consumption intensity in key industries.There are differences in the path and degree of impact of other demand factors such as household consumption on different key industries.