外部经济冲击的实际产出效应和通货膨胀效应检验——基于开放经济新凯恩斯DSGE模型的分析

Testing on real output effect and inflation effect of external economic shocks: Analysis based on new Keynesian DSGE model in open economy

通过构建开放经济下的新凯恩斯动态随机一般均衡模型,基于统一框架从总需求、总供给和金融等层面出发,研究世界产出、世界贸易、世界技术和汇率等四类外部经济冲击对中国实际产出和通货膨胀的影响,并模拟货币政策的调控效果。研究结果表明:四类异质性正向冲击均可以促进我国产出和通货膨胀水平的上升,且产出效应大于价格效应;世界产出和贸易冲击仅具有短期效应,世界技术冲击的影响具有长期性,汇率冲击短期内表现为正向影响,在长期则转为负向;运用包含汇率因素的泰勒规则可以实现良好的货币政策逆周期调控效果。对此,应当重视并理性看待世界经济冲击对我国经济的影响,提升政策调控的针对性和前瞻性。

By constructing a new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model under the open economy,and starting from general need,supply and finance based on unified framework,the present study explores the influence of such four open economy shocks on China's real output and inflation as world output,world trade,world technology and exchange rate,and simulates the regulating effect of monetary policy.Research findings show that the four kinds of heterogeneous positive shocks can promote the rise of China's output and inflation,and that the output effect is greater than the price effect.World output and trade shocks only exert short-term effects,world technology shocks exert long-term effects,and exchange rate shocks produce positive effects in a short term but negative effects in the long term.By adopting Taylor’s rule including the exchange rate factors,counter-cyclical regulating effect of monetary policy can be fulfilled.In this regard,we should attach importance to and treat rationally the impact of the world economic shocks on China's economy,hence enhancing the pertinence and foresight of regulating policy.