中国西北三省(区)风雪流发生的可能性

Probability of Snowstorm Disaster in Three Provinces in Northwest China

[目的]揭示新疆、内蒙古和甘肃西北3省(区)风雪流发生的可能性,为风雪灾害防治提供理论依据。[方法]利用1981—2010年3省(区)130个区站地面气象资料,划分风雪流发生可能性等级。[结果](1)研究区65.4%的地区有发生风雪流灾害的可能性,其中16.9%的地区发生风雪流可能性的等级较高;(2)研究区风雪流灾害最严重的月份为3和12月,少数地区受地形影响有所差异;(3)研究区30a间气象数据在一定范围内波动,风雪灾害发生可能性没有减弱趋势。[结论]西北3省(区)需重视风雪灾害防治,尤其是3和12月应重点防护;同时要加强生态修复工作,降低风雪灾害。

[Objective]To reveal the probability of snow flow in the three northwestern provinces(Xinjiang,Inner Mongolia and Gansu),in order to provide a theoretical basis for disaster prevention and control of snowstorm disasters.[Methods]We used the ground meteorological data from 130 district stations from 1981 to 2010,to classify the probability level of snow flow.[Results]①In the study area,65.4%of the regions have the probability for snowstorm disaster,of which 16.9%had a higher level probability for snowstorm disaster.②The most severe months of snowstorm disaster were March and December,and few areas were affected by terrain.③The meteorological data of the study area fluctuated within a certain period during the past 30 years,but the probability of snowstorm disasters was not decreased.[Conclusion]The three provinces in Northwest China should pay attention to the prevention and control of snowstorm disasters,especially in March and December.Meanwhile,ecological restoration should be strengthened to reduce the snowstorm disasters.