基于VAR模型的体育制造业与第三产业、国民经济的规模动态关系研究

Dynamic Relationship of Scale of the Sports Manufacturing Industry, the Third Industry and National Economy Based on VAR Model

运用2004—2016年体育制造业增加值、第三产业增加值和国民经济增加值的时间序列数据,通过单位根检验、协整检验、误差修正、Granger因果检验、脉冲响应、方差分解等,探讨体育制造业与第三产业、国民经济的规模动态关系。结果显示:(1)体育制造业与第三产业、国民经济的规模之间存在着长期均衡关系,且相互间有着具有正向促进作用;(2)从短期来看,体育制造业规模增长除受到上一年度自身发展的影响外,还受到上一年度第三产业和国民经济的影响;(3)体育制造业与第三产业、国民经济的规模间存在着单向因果关系,即第三产业和国民经济是推进体育制造业发展的格兰杰原因;(4)在受冲击的情况下,体育制造业与第三产业规模间的相互影响力度大于体育制造业与国民经济相互间的影响程度;(5)体育制造业和国民经济的规模增长以自身驱动为主,而第三产业规模增长受体育制造业的影响明显大于自身,但第三产业与国民经济对体育制造业的影响存在着滞后效应。基于上述,从经济发展、政策支持、科技创新、品牌建设等方面提出体育制造业与第三产业、国民经济规模协同增长以及提升体育制造业规模的建议。

Using the time series data of the added value of sports manufacturing industry,the added value of the tertiary industry and GDP in 2004-2016,by unit root test,cointegration test,error correction,Granger causality test,impulse response,error decomposition,etc,this study explored the dynamic relationship of scale of the sports manufacturing,the tertiary industry and the national economy.The results showed that:(1)There was a long-term equilibrium relationship between the sports manufacturing industry and the tertiary industry,the national economy,and they had a positive role in promoting each other;(2)In the short term,the development of the sports manufacturing industry scale was affected by the development of the third industry and the national economy in the previous year,in addition to the impact of its own development in the previous year;(3)There was a one-way causal relationship between the sports manufacturing industry and the tertiary industry、the national economy,in a word,the tertiary industry and the national economy were the reasons for the promotion of the development of the sports manufacturing industry;(4)Under the impact of the impact,the degree of influence and intensity of the scale of the sports manufacturing industry and the tertiary industry was greater than the relationship between the sports manufacturing industry and the national economy;(5)The development of the scale of the sports manufacturing industry and national economy was driven by itself,while the development of the scale of the tertiary industry was obviously more affected by sports manufacturing industry than itself.However,the influence of the tertiary industry and national economy on sports manufacturing industry had a lagging effect.Based on the above,from the aspects of economic development,policy support,scientific and technological innovation,and brand building,this study put forward proposals for the coordinated development of the scale of the sports manufacturing industry,the tertiary industry,the national economy,and the promotion of the scale of the sports manufacturing industry.