基于ISM-fuzzy MICMAC方法的PPP项目关键风险层级关系识别

Identification of Hierarchical Relationship of PPP Critical Risks Using Integrated ISM-fuzzy and MICMAC Approach

PPP项目失败往往并非由单一风险因素引起,准确分析导致PPP项目失败的风险因素间的相互影响关系至关重要。采用多种风险识别方法,识别出20项易导致PPP项目失败的关键风险因素;利用ISM-fuzzy和MICMAC方法构建关键风险因素相互影响的递阶层级结构,并结合各关键风险因素的依赖性和驱动力对风险因素进行分类,揭示出PPP项目的失败机理;最后,分析了各类关键风险因素的关联影响关系并提出了相应的风险管理建议。研究结果有助于PPP项目利益相关者识别项目执行过程中的关键风险因素和风险因素间的层级关系,尽早采取风险防范措施以降低项目失败的可能性,同时也可作为PPP项目风险管理和决策的有效辅助方法。

The accurate analysis of the correlation of risks that have led to the failure of PPP projects is important,because the failure of PPP projects is not caused by a single risk but the interactions of several risks.Firstly,20 risk factors are extracted using risk identification methods;secondly,the mechanism underlying the failure of PPP projects is revealed by adopting the ISM-fuzzy MICMAC model to construct the hierarchical structure of the critical risk factors and using the dependence and driving force to classify the risk factors;and finally,the paper presents the risk interaction analysis and provides some reasonable suggestions.This research is beneficial for stakeholders in identifying the key risks involved and the correlations between risks and decreasing the probability of project failure.The results show that the method can be effective for PPP risk management and decision making.