碳交易机制倒逼产业结构升级了吗?——基于合成控制法的分析

Does China's ETS Force the Upgrade of Industrial Structure——Evidence from Synthetic Control Method

本文基于中国2005—2016年省级面板数据,以2013年设立的7个碳交易试点作为准自然实验,采用合成控制法评估了碳交易机制对中国产业结构优化升级的影响,并进一步利用中介效应法对碳交易机制如何影响产业结构升级作出探索性回答。研究发现,碳交易机制对所在地区产业结构升级具有显著的"倒逼"效应,效应大小因试点地区特征不同呈现差异性,其中,湖北省碳交易试点的产业结构升级效应最大,重庆市最小。本文还发现,碳交易机制对促进技术创新、增加FDI流入具有积极作用,对国际贸易、投资需求则表现为抑制作用。技术创新、FDI均有助于促进产业结构的升级,投资需求的增加对产业结构升级起了阻碍作用,这可能与中国产业投资结构不合理有关,国际贸易对产业结构的影响不显著。本文的启示在于,政府应加快完善碳交易市场运行的相关配套政策和环境,并加大技术创新力度,合理利用外资,调整投资结构,促进产业结构的优化升级。

Based on the provincial panel data of China from 2005 to 2016 and the synthetic control method,the quasi-natural experiment of seven ETS pilots launched in 2013 is used to evaluate the effect of ETS on the upgrade of industrial structure in China.This paper attempts to explore how the ETS affects the upgrade of industrial structure by using the mediating effect model.The results show that China s ETS could significantly force the industrial structure to upgrade;the size of effect differs among the pilots due to feature differences in different areas;and among all pilots,the effect on the upgrade of industrial structure of Hubei province is the best,while the effect of Chongqing is the worst.It is also found that China's ETS effectively promotes technological innovation and the inflow of FDI,and has a negative impact on international trade and investment demand.Technological innovation and FDI are helpful to promote the upgrade of industrial structure.The increase of investment demand hinders the upgrade of industrial structure and may attribute to the unreasonable industrial investment structure in China.Moreover,international trade has little impact on the industrial structure.Thus,the government should perfect supporting policies and environment of the carbon trading market,and strengthen innovative dynamics,rationally exploit foreign capital and adjust investment structure to promote the optimization and upgrade of industrial structure.