基于多级模糊综合评价的输气站阀门失效风险分析

Failure Risk Analysis of Valves in Gas Transmission Station Based on Multilevel Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation

通过综合分析阀门失效因素,建立了以阀门失效为顶事件,以阀门卡死、阀门泄漏、阀门内漏为次顶事件的故障树。以故障树为基础模型,采用层次分析法确定各因素权重,并采用多级模糊综合评价法对阀门进行失效风险分析。结果表明,阀门失效风险的整体评分值为2.912 7,介于可能性较小和中等之间。结合评价过程和评价结果,实际运行中应重点从制定并严格落实阀门周期性维护保养计划、制定操作规程、加强监护防止误操作等方面制定风险控制措施。实例证明,评价结果符合实际管理现状,验证了多级模糊综合评价方法的有效性。

A fault tree with valve failure as the top event and valve stuck,valve leakage and valve internal leakage as the secondary top event was established based on the comprehensive analysis of valve failure factors.Based on the fault tree model,the weight of each factor is determined by the analytic hierarchy process(AHP),and the failure risk of the valve is analyze using the multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method.The results show that the overall score of valve failure risk is 2.912 7,which is between the less likely and the moderate.According to the evaluation process and results,the risk control measures should be formulated in the aspects of formulating and strictly implementing the periodic maintenance plan of valves,formulating operation rules and strengthening monitoring to prevent misoperation.The example proves that the evaluation results accord with the actual management status,and verifies the effectiveness of the method based on multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation.