基于Event模型的跨高度层军民航碰撞风险分析

Analysis of the Collision Risk Across Flight Level Between Military Aviation and Civil Aviation Based on Event Model

为了缓解军民航用空矛盾,确保空中飞行安全,使军航训练空域的划设更加科学可信,利用Event模型,以跨多个高度层的半滚倒转特技训练为例,通过仿真计算战斗机特技飞行训练标称航迹,以及军民航飞机在导航误差、飞行员操作误差、侧向风等因素影响下的侧向间隔丢失频率,获得在特技飞行训练中的军民航飞机碰撞概率模型,并给出符合国际民航组织安全目标等级的训练空域安全余度及军航飞行训练方法建议。

In order to easy the contradiction in airspace using between military and civil aviation,and to ensure air safety,Event model is used to make delimitation more scientific and credible.The case is half a roll back.By simulating war craft’s path,and calculating frequency of side spacing loss under the influence of the navigation error,pilot error and lateral wind,the collision probability model can be used to military aerobatic training flight,so that someone can put forward some suggestions about airspace and flight