东京奥运视野下世界女子蹦床竞技格局分析与应对策略

Analysis and Strategies of World Women Trampoline Competition Pattern from the Perspective of Tokyo Olympic Games

采用东京奥运视野,运用专家访谈法、文献资料法和数理统计法,探析东京奥运周期世界女子蹦床竞技实力新格局,对2017年第32届世界蹦床锦标赛各国参赛情况及女子网上个人项目的比赛成绩进行统计分析,进一步厘清对蹦床比赛成绩产生影响的关键因素,为我国东京奥运的备战和参赛提供有益的借鉴。研究得出:中国女子蹦床运动员在世锦赛中暴露出了稳定性不佳、预赛第1套动作难度值缺乏竞争力等问题;女子网上个人比赛中位移得分与技术得分之间存在较强的相关性,技术得分对位移得分产生较大影响;我国女子蹦床在今后的备战工作中需提高预赛第1套动作的难度储备,应通过不断提高技术能力和稳定性来实现位移得分的提高;需重点关注女子蹦床项目主要竞争对手白俄罗斯、日本、加拿大和法国并进行有针对性的重点部署和安排。

By using the methods of expert interview,literature review and mathematical statistics,this paper probes into the new competition pattern of world women trampoline in Tokyo Olympic cycle.Based on the data analysis of the participat ing teams and their performance in women individual events of the 32nd World Trampoline Championship in 2017,this paper tends to clarify the key factors affecting the results of trampoline competitions,and provide Chinese national trampoline team with a useful reference for the preparation and participation in the Tokyo Olympic Games.The results show that:1)Athletes of Chinese women trampoline have weaknesses of poor stability and a lack of competitiveness concerning the difficulty score of their first routine of qualifications;2)There is a strong correlation bet\veen the displacement score and the technical score in women trampoline innividual of 2017 World Championship,and the technical score has the greatest influence on the displacement score;3)Chinese women trampoline team should increase difficulty reserve of first routine of qualifications,and improve displacement score by enhancing athletes’technical ability and stability;)Attention should be paidto the major competitors in women individuals in the Tokyo Olympic games including teams of Belarus,Japan,Canada and France,and major deployment and arangement should be made accordingly.