摘要
现阶段M0运行规律发生的深刻变化客观上对预测模型提出了更高要求。通过构建ADLMIDAS模型,从不同权重函数形式和预测方法的组合模型中得出最优预测模型,运用包含更多信息的混频数据对我国M0进行短期预测。预测结果显示,2018年M0增速将维持在5%以下,M0总量将处于7万亿—7.4万亿的区间,未来四年M0运行趋势依赖于宏观经济走势和非现金支付发展,M0增速和总量将在3%—8%以及7万亿—10万亿之间大幅波动。
At present,the changes of M0 operation rule have raised higher requirements on the prediction model.This paper employed ADL-MIDAS model,selected optimal forecasting model from different model combinations,and forecasting M0 in the short-term with more information of mixed frequency.The forecasting results show that M0 growth will be maintained below 5%in 2018,and the total M0 will be in the range of 7-7.4 trillion.The M0 operation trend in the next four years depends on the macroeconomic cycle and non-cash payments,the M0 growth and total volume will fluctuate between 3%-8%and 7-10 trillion.
出处
《金融理论与实践》
北大核心
2018年第12期12-19,共8页
Financial Theory and Practice
基金
国家社会科学基金项目"基于生产要素集聚与农民福利动态均衡的新型城镇化发展质量研究"(14BJL063)
教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大资助项目"新常态下促进经济稳定增长的要素配置与产业升级政策研究"(16JJD790015)