撒哈拉以南非洲人口红利及国家政策取向

Demographic Dividend and Policy Orientation in Sub-Saharan Africa

二战后,世界人口分布正在发生结构性变化,许多国家已经进入或将逐步进入人口老龄化阶段。撒哈拉以南非洲将是21世纪世界人口增长较快的主要地区,人口红利的潜力巨大,但基于该地区死亡率下降、生育率长期居高不下情势,人口转变进程缓慢,进入人口红利窗口期的时间明显滞后于世界其他地区。撒哈拉以南非洲将于2065年左右进入人口红利窗口期,并将持续到2100年以后,是世界上最后一个拥有人口红利窗口期的地区,也是世界上在窗口期拥有劳动年龄人口最多的地区之一。但该地区充分兑现人口红利也面临诸多制约因素和挑战,需要各国尽早行动起来,把应对人口问题作为政府的优先事项,避免人口红利变为人口负债,并陷入人口爆炸、青年大量失业、国家局势动荡、生态环境恶化以及未富先老的艰难处境。

After WWII,the world population distribution had been experiencing structural changes.Many countries have entered or gradually enter the aged tendency of population.Sub-Saharan Africa will be the main area for population growth in the 21st century,and its demographic dividend has a great potential.However,Sub-Saharan Africa lagged behind the rest of the world in entering the demographic window because of its slow decline in fertility and slow demographic transition.According to the analysis of this article,Sub-Saharan Africa will enter the demographic window of opportunity around 2065,which will continue until 2100.It is the last region with demographic window in the world,and also one of the regions with the most working-age population in the window period.However,the full realization of the Sub-Saharan African demographic dividend faces many constraints and challenges.Sub-Saharan African countries should deal with population issues as a government priority to prevent the demographic dividend from becoming a demographic debt,and to avoid falling into the difficult situation of population explosion,massive unemployment among youth,instability of the country,deterioration of the ecological environment and an aging society before getting rich.