我国中长期电力需求增长趋势研究

Research on the Growth Trend of Medium and Long-Term Power Demand in China

我国经济已进入高质量发展的新阶段,全球新一轮能源转型正蓬勃兴起,给我国能源和电力消费带来深远影响。综合考虑我国经济发展与电力消费的历史规律、典型发达国家经济增长与电力消费的历史经验和我国中长期经济发展趋势等,未来我国电力需求仍有较大的增长潜力,但电力需求增速将呈阶段性递减趋势,预计2018—2020年,我国电力需求将保持中速刚性增长,2020年全社会用电量达到7.4万亿k Wh左右。2021—2035年,我国电力需求逐步进入低速增长期,2035年全社会用电量达到9.9万亿k Wh左右。2036—2050年,我国电力需求增速进一步放缓,全社会用电量逐步进入峰值平台期,2050年达到10.5万亿kWh左右。

China’s economy has entered a new stage of high-quality development,meanwhile,a new round of global energy transformation is emerging vigorously,bringing profound impacts on China’s energy and electricity consumption.Considering the past economic development and electricity consumption historical law of our country and experience between economic growth and electricity consumption of typical developed country,as well as China’s medium and longterm economic development trend and the change trend of the main factors that influence the electricity demand of our country,the future electricity demand of our country still has large growth potential,but the growth rate will periodically degressive trend.Firstly,China’s electricity demand will maintain a moderate and rigid growth in 2018~2020,and the total electricity consumption will reach about 7,400 TWh in 2020.Secondly,China’s electricity demand gradually entered a low-speed growth period in 2021~2035,and the total electricity consumption will reach about 9,900 TWh.China’s electricity demand growth will further slow down in 2036~2050,and the total electricity consumption will gradually enter a peak platform period,and the total electricity consumption will reach about 10,500 TWh in 2050.