中国九大城市群综合承载力的空间非均衡及其动态演进

Regional Disparity and Distributional Dynamic Evolution of Comprehensive Carrying Capacity in Nine Chinese Megalopolises

选取2006—2015年中国九大城市群的面板数据,借助Dagum基尼系数、Kernal核密度估计和Markov链对九大城市群综合承载力的区域差距及其分布动态演进进行实证分析,结果表明:中国九大城市群综合承载力的总体差距呈下降趋势。珠三角城市群内部差距最大,中原城市群内部差距最小。城市群间差距最大的是珠三角和关中城市群,城市群之间差距是造成九大城市群总体差距的主要原因;城市群内存在一些综合承载力高的城市发展更快、承载力低的城市发展较慢的现象,大部分城市群内部综合承载力存在两极和多极分化现象;九大城市群综合承载力的发展类型较为稳定,具有路径依赖性,总体向中等和高水平状态的趋势发展。

In this paper,we draw on the panel data from nine Chinese megalopolises during 2006 to 2015,and estimates comprehensive carrying capacity regional difference of nine Chinese megalopolises and dynamic evolution by means of Dagum's Gini coefficient,Kernel density estimation and Markov chains.The results show that a downward trend for the regional disparity of nine Chinese megalopolises.The inner difference of the pearl river delta megalopolis is the largest,and the Central Henan megalopolis difference is the smallest.The gap between Harbin-Changchun megalopolis and the middle reaches of the Yangtze river is the smallest.Differences between megalopolises are the main reasons for the overall imbalance among nine Chinese megalopolises.The Kernel density estimation indicates that there are some cities with a high lever comprehensive carrying capacity in megalopolis,and the slow development of cities with low carrying capacity.In most megalopolises,there are polarities and polarities phenomenon.According to the analysis of Markov chain,the development type of the comprehensive carrying capacity of the nine major megalopolises is stable and has the path dependence,and the steady state is the medium level and the high level.