中国地级以上城市智慧城市建设动因探寻——基于268个城市的事件史分析方法

Exploring the Motivation Factors for Starting Smart City Construction among Prefecture-level Cities in China:Results on 268 Cities Based on the Event History Analysis Method

智慧城市是新一代信息技术在城市规划、建设和治理中的应用,探寻智慧城市建设动因对科学认知中国智慧城市建设现状、把握建设动态和规范建设行为具有重要意义。以政府创新扩散理论和组织技术接受行为理论为基础,结合智慧城市建设问题导向的特征,基于中国已启动智慧城市建设的268个城市2010—2016年的相关数据,构建理论模型,运用事件史分析法进行了数据分析。由此得出的结论是:各市智慧城市建设动因与其对外所宣传的"问题导向"动因不一致;智慧城市是一个阶段性的概念,当城市信息化基础高度发达时,所有城市都将是智慧城市;时间变量对智慧城市建设在各城市间扩散具有显著影响,这说明政府在启动智慧城市建设时存在效仿和复制行为。

Smart city is a kind of new city with modern ICTs being used in the city planning,building and governance.It contains significant meaning for getting the current status,mastering the tendency and regulating the later construction behavior for smart cities construction in China to explore the motivation factors.This paper is founded on the innovation diffusion theory and organization technology adoption theory,with the issue-oriented features taking into account,then the author constructed the theoretical model and utilized the event history analysis method to study the data collected between 2009 and 2015 for the 268 cities which have started smart city construction in our country.The conclusions include:the cities'real motivation for smart city construction is different from those which they reported publicly as issue-oriented ones;smart city is a temporary concept and it will disappear when all the cities become smart cities with the highly developed information infrastructure;time variable has a significant role on the diffusion of smart city construction among cities,which illustrates that there are imitating and copying behaviors when the government decided to start smart city construction.