数字普惠金融影响经济增长的路径研究

Study on Path of Digital Inclusion Finance Affecting Economic Growth

短期内,消费、投资和净出口通常被比喻为拉动经济增长的"三驾马车"。将消费、投资以及净出口视为数字普惠金融影响经济增长的三个主要路径,利用2011—2015年中国各地区的数字普惠金融发展水平、经济增长、消费、投资、净出口等数据,运用Bootstrap中介效应检验程序分析消费、投资和净出口在数字普惠金融作用于经济增长过程中的中介效应是否显著。实证结果发现,在全国样本和中部地区,消费和投资的中介效应均显著为正,净出口的中介效应不显著;在西部地区,消费和投资的中介效应显著为正,但净出口的中介效应显著为负值;在东部地区,仅消费的中介效应显著为正,投资和净出口的中介效应均不显著。三个地区中,数字普惠金融对经济增长的拉动作用最大的是西部地区,其次是中部地区,拉动作用最小的是东部地区。

In the short-term,consumption,investment and net exports are usually referred as the troikas that drive economic growth.Considering consumption,investment and net exports as the three main channels for digital inclusive finance affecting economic growth,using data on the level of digital inclusive financial development,economic growth,consumption,investment,and net exports in various regions of China from2011to2015,and using the Bootstrap mediation test program,it is analyzed whether the mediating effects of consumption,investment,and net exports on the role of digital inclusive finance in economic growth are significant or not.The results show that the median utility of consumption and investment is significantly positive in the national sample and the central region,and the intermediary effect of net exports is not significant.In the western region,the mediating utility of consumption and investment is significantly positive,but the mediating utility of net exports is significantly negative.In the eastern region,only the intermediary effect of consumption is significantly positive,and the intermediary effects of investment and net exports are not significant.Among the three regions,digital inclusive finance has the largest effect on economic growth in the western region,followed by the central region,and the eastern region has the least pulling effect.