油茶花期产量模型及关键气象因子分析

Analysis on Yield Model and Key Meteorological Factors in Camellia oleifera Flowering Phase

为了深入分析油茶花期气候条件对油茶产量的影响,基于1954—2010年江西省宜春市袁州区油茶花期47类气象指标和油茶单产数据,利用线性趋势分析、相关分析和逐步回归等方法,构建了基于油茶花期气候条件的产量模型,筛选出关键气象因子,并对其变化趋势进行了分析。结果表明:基于油茶花期构建的产量模型能很好地模拟出油茶实际产量的变化趋势,模型平均相对误差为19%,增减产准确率为75%,利用花期产量模型能很好地预测来年油茶产量,可为油茶防灾减灾提供决策依据。通过相关分析筛选出油茶花期关键气象因子:降水日数、相对湿度、最长连续日照天数、日最低气温低于-4℃日数,其中油茶产量与花期降水日数呈显著负相关,与花期相对湿度呈负相关,与花期最长连续日照天数呈显著正相关,与花期日最低气温低于-4℃的低温日数呈负相关。花期降水日数偏少,最长连续日照天数偏多,日最低气温低于-4℃的天数偏少有利于丰产。花期关键气象因子的年代际变化特征不同:花期降水日数呈显著下降的趋势,倾向率为3.1 d/10 a;相对湿度呈减小趋势,倾向率为0.6%/10 a;最长连续日照天数变化趋势不明显,倾向率为0.3 d/10 a;花期冰冻日数呈显著减少的趋势,倾向率为0.3 d/10 a。

In order to deeply analyze the influence of climatic conditions on the production of Camellia oleifera,based on the47meteorological indicators and oil tea yield data of Camellia sinensis in Yuanzhou District from1954to2010,using linear trend analysis,correlation analysis and stepwise regression method,a yield model based on climatic conditions of Camellia sinensis was constructed,and key meteorological factors were selected.A trend analysis was conducted on it.The results showed that the yield model based on Camellia sinensis could simulate the change trend of actual Camellia oleifera production.The average relative error of the model was19%,and the accuracy of increase and decrease was75%.It can be predicted well by using the flowering yield model.The production of Camellia oleifera in the coming year will provide a basis for decision-making for oil tea disaster prevention and mitigation.The key meteorological factors of Camellia oleifera were screened by relevant analysis:precipitation days,relative humidity,longest continuous sunshine days,and daily minimum temperatures below-4℃.There was a significant negative correlation between the yield of Camellia oleifera and the number of precipitation days during flowering,and a negative correlation with the relative humidity of flowering period,which was negatively correlated with the number of low temperature days when the minimum temperature of flowering day was lower than-4℃.When the number of precipitation days in the flowering period was small,the longest continuous sunshine days were more,and the number of days with a minimum daily temperature below-4℃was conducive to high yield.The interdecadal variation characteristics of key meteorological factors in flowering period were different:the precipitation days in flowering period showed a significant downward trend,the tendency rate was3.1d/10a;the relative humidity showed a decreasing trend,the tendency rate was0.6%/10a;the trend of the longest continuous sunshine days was not obvious,and the tendency rate was0.3d/10a;the number of freezing days in the flowering period showed a significant decrease trend,and the tendency rate was0.3d/10a.