中国城镇家庭储蓄行为研究:1995-2013

A Study of Household Saving Behavior in Urban China: 1995-2013

本文利用中国家庭收入调查数据,对1995-2013年间中国城镇家庭储蓄率变化的主要影响因素进行了研究,并重点考察了收入风险与财富储备对我国城镇家庭预防性储蓄动机的影响。本文在样本统计分析的基础上,同时在均值和分位水平上构建并估计了储蓄方程,发现收入水平、收入不确定性、财富水平、家庭规模、人力资本投资、婚姻竞争与家庭储蓄率显著相关。通过对期际储蓄率变动进行反事实分解,我们发现中国城镇家庭在1995-2002年间的储蓄率增长主来源于由储蓄方程常数和省份效应引起的结构效应,而2002-2013年间的储蓄率增长则主要归因于收入增长引起的构成效应。此外,通过结构效应的协变量分解,本文考察了两段时期城镇家庭预防性储蓄针对收入不确定性和财富水平的敏感程度变化。

Using the China Household Income Project(CHIP)data,this paper examines major factors of Chinese urban households'saving behavior with a focus on how household income uncertainty and wealth level affect precautionary saving.Based on the results of statistical analysis,we construct the saving equation and find that household income,income uncertainty,wealth level,household size,household need for human capital investment,and its need for competing in marriage market are all significantly related to households'saving decision.By analyzing saving rate change with a counterfactual decomposition method,we find that the rise of Chinese urban household saving rate between1995and2002is mainly due to a structural effect,while the rise of saving rate after2002is mainly because of a composition effect.Further decomposition indicates that the structural effect is driven by change of the constant in the saving equation and a provincial effect.We also examine the sensitivity of urban households'precautionary saving in reaction to changes of income uncertainty and households'wealth in the two periods.