改革开放40年来中国农业经济增长的演变历程

Evolution of Agricultural Economic Growth in China Over the Recent 40 Years of Reform and Opening up

回顾改革40年,中国农业经济的发展取得举世瞩目的成就。转型发展中"三农"问题历来受到党和政府的高度重视,中国以实际行动做到了农业保增长、农村促进步、农民增收入。但是,中国农业依然面临着整体的产业升级和改造以及经济转型期农业发展如何过渡的问题。因此,本文基于1978～2016年时间序列数据对中国农业经济增长演变历程进行分析,研究发现:中国农业总产出增长速度时缓时急,直至2008年开始保持较稳定增长模式;农业内部各产业中种植业依然是支柱产业,但畜牧业、渔业未来的增长潜力更大;农业人均产出增长变化趋势基本与人均地区生产总值增长变化一致。同期比较发现,人均产出增长率低于人均地区生产总值增长率,这与一般经济规律也是相符的。本文探讨了改革开放40年中国农业经济发展过程中的特征,同时揭示了中国农业发展的现状,以期为当前中国农业经济增长政策的制定提供参考依据。

In the recent 40 years of reform and opening up,the agricultural economy in China made great achievements.The issue of“agriculture,rural areas and farmers”called for much attention of the Chinese Communist Party and the China's government.The agriculture in China developed quickly,and big progress had been made in the rural areas,resulting in increase of the farmers in the rural areas.Agriculture in Chinawas facing the problem of overall industrial upgrading and transformation and how agriculture would develop in China during the period of economic transition.The evolution process of agricultural economic growth in China was analyzed based on the time series data of 1978~2016.The results showed that the growth rate of total agricultural output in China was slow and fast now and then,and maintained stable until 2008.The plantation sector in the agriculturewas still the pillar sector,but the animal husbandry and fishery sectors had a greater growth potential.The per capita agricultural output growth tended to be basically consistent with the change of per capita GDP.The per capita output growth rate was lower than the per capita GDP growth rate,which was also consistent with the general economic law.The characteristics of agricultural economic development in China during the past 40 years of reform and opening up were discussed,and the current situation of agricultural development in China were described in order to provide reference for the formulation of China agricultural economic growth policy in China.