低碳视角下城镇化与农业生态效率的门槛效应

The Threshold Effect of Urbanization and Agro-ecological Efficiency from a Low-carbon Perspective

本文用基于农业生产碳排放的SBM模型测算低碳视角下2006-2015年中国西部11省(区)的农业生态效率,并研究城镇化进程中人口城镇化(城镇人口与地区总人口之比)和土地城镇化(城市建成区及建制镇建成区面积与地区土地总面积之比)对农业生态效率影响的门槛效应。研究发现:1.人口城镇化的门槛效应不显著,而当土地城镇化作为门槛变量,无论是以其自身还是人口城镇化作为核心解释变量,均表现出双重门槛效应,且跃过第二门槛时负向相关作用减弱; 2.平均水平上看,农业生态效率水平高低依次为新疆、广西、青海、四川(高水平)>内蒙、重庆、陕西(中高水平)>贵州、宁夏、云南(中等水平)>甘肃(低水平)。文末根据研究结果从技术帮扶、融资拓宽、污染调控三方面给出政策建议。

This paper uses the SBM model based on carbon emissions from agricultural production to measure the agro-ecological efficiency of11provinces in western China from2006to2015in a low-carbon perspective,and to study the urbanization of population in the process of urbanization(the ratio of urban population to total population).And the threshold effect of land urbanization(the ratio of the urban built-up area and the ratio of the built-up area of the built-up town to the total area of the land)on the agricultural eco-efficiency.The study found that:1.The threshold effect of population urbanization is not significant,and when land urbanization is used as a threshold variable,whether it is its own or population urbanization as the core explanatory variable,it shows a double threshold effect and jumps beyond the second threshold.At the average level,the level of agro-ecological efficiency is Xinjiang,Guangxi,Qinghai,Sichuan(high level)>Inner Mongolia,Chongqing,Shaanxi(middle high level)>Guizhou,Ningxia,Yunnan(medium)Level)>Gansu(low level).At the end of the paper,based on the research results,policy recommendations were given from three aspects:technical assistance,financing expansion,and pollution control.