管理层过度自信与投资风险——基于持股变动的视角

Management overconfidence and Investment Risk——A Perspective based on the change of Stock ownership

基于对2009—2017年间中国A股上市的522个样本企业市场的实证研究,从行为金融学的角度考察管理层过度自信和投资风险间的关系。研究发现,管理层过度自信与企业投资风险成负相关,过度自信的管理层会加深企业的债务压力,具体表现为杠杆率上升;国有企业的管理层更容易出现过度自信,国有企业的负债率普遍较非国有企业高,企业的投资风险也更高。因此,适当引入与国际接轨的会计审核机制和现代化风险管理模式,有效规范管理层,是一种降低投资风险的有效途径。

Based on the empirical study of 522 Chinese A-share listed enterprises in 2009-2017,the relationship between management overconfidence and investment risk is investigated from the perspective of behavioral finance. It is found that the overconfidence of management is negatively related to the investment risk,and the overconfident management will deepen the debt pressure of the enterprise,which is manifested by the increase of leverage ratio. The management of state-owned enterprises is more prone to overconfidence,the debt ratio of state-owned enterprises is generally higher than that of non-state-owned enterprises,and the investment risk of enterprises is also higher. Therefore,it is an effective way to reduce investment risk by introducing appropriate accounting audit mechanism and modern risk management model in line with international standards and effectively standardizing management.