美国重新谈判北美自贸协定的原因——基于内部制成品贸易结构的分析

Reasons for renegotiation of North American Free Trade Agreement——Analysis of trade structure of internal manufactured goods

美国现政府竞选时就提出了重新谈判北美自由贸易协定的设想并在执政后将其变成了现实。现有研究主要从选举、利益集团、大国博弈、贸易失衡等角度进行解读。不过,重新谈判这样的安排,若非是一体化的根基出现了动摇,很难具备经济上的合理性,也难以得到广泛的国内支持。北美自由贸易区内部贸易结构的变化是美国态度发生变化的重要原因,除了相关理论自身的前提条件和现实世界存在差距外,区域生产网络和区域价值链的重塑、内部市场容量增长有限、技术创新能力和潜力的相对下降、国际直接投资的直接和间接影响是其内部贸易结构变化的主要原因,这给予包括我国在内的各国和地区诸多启示。

The idea of renegotiating the North American Free Trade Agreement(NAFTA)was put forward by the current US government during the election campaign and has become a reality after taking office.The existing research mainly interprets the renegotiation from the perspectives of election,interest groups,game between big powers,and trade imbalance,etc.However,such a renegotiation arrangement hardly has economic rationality and obtains broad domestic support if the foundation of integration has not been shaken.The change of trade structure in NAFTA is an important reason for the change of American attitude.Apart from the gap between the preconditions of relevant theories and the real world,the major causes for the change of internal trade structure are many,such as the restructuring of regional production networks and regional value chains,the limited growth of internal market capacity,the relative decline of technological innovation capacity and potential,and the direct and indirect effects of international direct investment.The research gives much enlightenment to countries and regions including China.