聚氯乙烯行业的生产现状及发展趋势

Production status and development trend of PVC industry

2017年PVC的市场价格最高时在8 450元/t左右,在这个价位下,全国所有产能预计都能实现盈利,目前每年1 600多万t的产量对应需求应该没有过剩,但2 300多万t的产能对应下游需求量就过剩较多了,所以八千多元每吨PVC的价格确实是超出了合理价位。而且过高的价格会受到下游客户抵制,将影响到整个行业的健康发展,所以PVC价格出现回落。2018年,PVC市场仍然上下两难。短期看,目前处于传统淡季,下游需求不足,供需压力较大,存在向低趋势发展可能;远期看,产能过剩依然存在,成本支撑与需求颓势博弈,难有大的起伏。随着环保监管日趋严格,下游需求将延续弱势,供需失衡将导致PVC市场震荡前行,难有大的起色。

In2017,the highest market price of PVC was around8,450yuan/t.At this price,all production capacity in the country is expected to be profitable.At present,there should be no surplus demand corresponding to the output of more than16million tons per year.But more than23million tons of capacity corresponds to excess demand downstream.The price of more than8,000yuan per ton of PVC is indeed beyond the reasonable price.And the high price would be resisted by downstream customers,which would affect the healthy development of the whole industry,so the price of PVC was fall.In2018,the PVC market is still in a dilemma.In the short run,it is in the traditional off-season,with insufficient downstream demand and high pressure of supply and demand,which makes it possible to develop towards a low trend.In the long run,overcapacity still exists,and it is difficult to have a big fluctuation in the game between cost support and demand decline.With the increasingly stringent supervision of environmental protection,downstream demand will continue to be weak,the imbalance between supply and demand will lead to the shock of the PVC market,and it is difficult to make a big improvement.