基于时间序列的烧结终点自适应预报模型

Self adaptive modeling of burn though point in sintering process based on time series

本文首先用数学和工艺分析的方法,确定终点位置的影响因素;建立基于时间序列的终点预报模型;找到自适应的方法,使终点预报模型能满足未来生产条件调整。结果表明,使用自适应动态预报模型,提前15min预测烧结终点的位置,并且专家知识库不断进行自学习,大大提高了预测的命中率,误差为个风箱的命中率达到100%。

The influencing factors on the burn-through point of the sintering process are ascertained according to mathematical and processing methods in this essay.A BTP prediction model based on time series is established and the self adaptive technique is added into the model.In this way,the BTP prediction model can meet the change of the production condition.