计划单列体制的改革属性、区域经济增长及改革突破方向

The Reform Nature, Regional Economic Growth Effect and Reform Direction of Separate State Planning System

计划单列体制是中国现行五级行政管理体制下对政府资源如何配置的一个有益尝试。这一改革的影响并没有随着时间的推移而减少,但对其研究却明显不足。本文采用历史演进主义的视角,分析了计划单列体制的改革属性,定量测度计划单列体制的分权程度,利用1978—2016年数据,实证分析计划单列体制的区域经济增长效应。分析结论如下:(1)计划单列体制增强了中央的权力,倾向于集权而不是分权;(2)计划单列体制对区域经济增长的影响不显著;(3)计划单列体制城市越多、财政单列项目越多,越倾向于对区域经济增长产生不利影响;(4)1994年之后,计划单列体制的集权特质对区域经济增长存在显著负向影响,其中山东、浙江、辽宁三省的负向激励机制更大。

The separate state planning system represents a useful attempt of allocating administration resources under the current five-level administrative system in China. The effect of this attempt does not dissipate over time, but the study in this regard is insufficient. From the perspective of historical evolution, this paper first analyzes the reform nature of the separate state planning system and then examines its effect on regional economic growth based on the data of 1978—2016. The result shows: The separate state planning system reinforces the power of central government while the system’s influence upon regional economic growth is not statistically significant. The more the cities and the fiscal items under separate state planning there are, the more likely it is to exert negative effect on the regional economic growth. There exists obvious negative effect of power centralization of separate state planning on regional economic growth after 1994. Across the country, the system has relatively strong negative incentive in Shandong, Zhejiang and Liaoning.