河南省金融发展、城镇化及工业化动态关系研究

Study on the dynamic relationship between financial development,urbanization and industrialization of Henan Province

采用1978—2016年河南省的时间序列数据,运用格兰杰因果检验、Johansen协整检验和VAR模型对河南省金融发展、城镇化和工业化之间的动态关系进行分析。结果表明,三者之间存在长期的均衡关系,金融发展对城镇化和工业化具有明显的促进作用,而且这种作用随着时间逐渐增强;城镇化和工业化具有相互促进的作用,但是从长期来看,工业化对城镇化的促进作用要大于城镇化对工业化的促进作用,而且城镇化和工业化达到一定水平时也对金融发展有一定的促进作用。

Using the time-series data of Henan Province from1978to2016,the Granger causality test,Johansen cointegration and VAR models are used to analyze the dynamic relationship between financial development,urbanization,and industrialization of Henan Province.The results indicate that they have the long-term equilibrium relationship,the financial development promotes urbanization and industrialization,and this effect increased gradually over time.Urbanization and industrialization have a mutually reinforcing effect,however,in the long run,the role of industrialization in promoting urbanization is greater than that of urbanization in promoting industrialization,and when developing to a certain level,urbanization and industrialization also have a certain promoting effect on financial development.