基于ES模型的扇区容量评估研究

Research on Assessment Method of Sector Capacity Based on ES Model

民航运输业的不断发展,导致空域越来越拥挤,空域容量问题成为民航的热点问题,而空域则是由一个个扇区构成的,因此,扇区容量问题是决定空域顺畅运行的关键因素。分析了扇区内飞机架次数与管制员工作负荷的自相关增长规律,提出了基于指数平滑(Exponential Smoothing,ES)模型的扇区容量评估方法。以西北部某管制扇区为例进行扇区容量评估研究,通过仿真验证,指数平滑模型能够很好地评估扇区容量,并能以90%的精度,把扇区管制负荷波动控制在容量阈值以内,说明方法具有准确性和有效性。

The continuous development of the civil aviation industry,resulting in more and more crowded airspace.Airspace capacity has become a hot issue in civil aviation.Airspace is made up of sectors,therefore,the sector capacity is the key factor to determine the smooth operation of the airspace.This paper analyzes the number of aircraft in the sector and the workload of the autocorrelation growth rule,then,an assessment method of sector capacity based on exponential smoothing model(ES)is proposed.Taking a sector in the northwest of China as an example,this paper makes a research on sector capacity assessment.Comparing to the simulation results,the ES model can commendably assess the sector capacity,at the same time it proves the validity of the method.