日本公共年金制度可持续的实证研究

An Empirical Study on the Sustainability of Japanese Public Pension System

日本公共年金制度作为社会保障的重要组成部分,在经济发展和社会稳定中发挥着不可替代的作用。但是,历经半个多世纪,日本的出生率、抚养比、人均寿命等人口结构发生了巨大变化,少子老龄化现象越发严重,直接导致了加入公共年金人数的减少和领取者的增多,公共年金收支缺口越来越大。代际间、代际内不公平,也带来了一定的负面影响。制度的可持续遇到严重挑战。但是,实证结果显示,加入公共年金制度可以降低风险,提高福利水平。运用自回归模型对未来30年公共年金收支缺口的预测,进一步证明了日本公共年金制度可以实现可持续。

As an important part of social security,Japanese public pension system plays an irreplaceable role in economic development and social stability.However,after more than half a century,Japan's birth rate,dependency ratio,life expectancy and other demographic structures have undergone tremendous changes.The phenomenon of baby bust and population aging is becoming more and more serious,which has directly led to the reduction of the number of people joining the public annuity and the increase of the number of people taking public pension.The gap between revenue and expenditure of public annuity has become wider.The intergenerational and inter generational inequalities in the Japanese public pension system also have some negative effects,and the sustainability of the system has encountered serious challenges.However,the empirical results show that joining the public pension system can reduce risks and raise the level of welfare.Autoregressive model predicts the revenue and expenditure gap of public annuity in the next30years,which further proves that Japan can achieve the sustainability of public pension system.