深化成品油消费分析的几点思考

Some Considerations about Deepening Consumption Analysis of Oil Products

成品油消费涉及汽车、航空、建筑施工、工矿、商业民用、水路运输、发电等众多行业,现有分析方法主要有供给侧的国家统计局口径分析法、国家发改委口径分析法,需求侧的分行业消费分析法,以及与宏观经济指标或行业指标进行关联的关联系数分析法,由于诸多限制,当前各种分析方法均有其不完善之处,需要取长补短,加以完善。本文提出的供给侧深化分析的建议主要有采用国家统计局口径的企业范围、主营炼厂和复杂系数相结合的产品收率,深化民营炼油企业的产销、替代能源和隐性资源、社会库存分析。需求侧深化分析的建议主要有深化汽车等重点行业的用油分析,深化全口径用油分析,特别是要重点分析成品油+燃料油的消费。同时,要多种方法互相印证,不断提高成品油消费分析预测水平。

Oil products consumption involves automobile,aviation,construction,mining,commercial,civil,waterway transportation,power generation and many other industries.The current analysis methods of oil products consumption are mainly the supply-side analysis based on the NBS data or the SDRC data,the demand-side analysis on consumption by-industry,and the correlation coefficient analysis with macro-economic index and industry index.Due to the constraints still existed in the analysis of oil products consumption,all of the analysis methods have their pros and cons,and need to be refined by mutual learning.In this paper,the supply-side in-depth analysis presents major improvement suggestions adopting the yields of oil products from the refineries surveyed by NBS and calculated with refinery complexity index,and selecting the refined data on oil products production and marketing of private refineries,alternative energy,hidden resources and social inventory;The demand-side in-depth analysis should focus on full-coverage analysis of oil products consumption,particularly in key industries like automobile and in the form of oil products plus fuel oil.Meanwhile,these analysis methods should examine and verify their results to further refine the analysis and forecast of oil products consumption.