全球价值链下金砖国家制造业出口结构分解及竞争力测算

Export Structure Decomposition and Competitiveness Measurement of BRICS Exports in Global Value Chain

利用WWZ分解方法,结合WIOD数据库,从制造业的整体行业和细分行业两个方面出发对金砖国家2005—2014年出口进行价值分解,基于前向联系测算竞争力RCA_VD指数。分析表明:巴西的制造业水平处于较上游位置;中国制造业向GVC高端靠近,仍处于较低端位置;印度的制造业水平不断下滑,对于制造业进口品依赖较大;俄罗斯制造业处于高端位置。中国的低技术行业相对处于下游,高技术行业正在向上游靠近;印度的中低技术行业和中高技术行业明显处于下游;俄罗斯在所有行业均处于上游。巴西的低技术行业具有比较优势,高技术行业劣势明显;中国所有行业都具有比较优势;印度的低技术、中低技术行业具有比较优势,高技术行业则处于明显劣势;俄罗斯的中低技术行业具有比较优势,其余明显处于竞争劣势,行业发展不均衡。一国制造业规模大小、比较优势与全球价值链参与程度和地位不存在明显线性关系。

This paper uses WWZ decomposition method and WIOD database to analyze the value of BRICS exports from2005to2014from the perspective of the whole manufacturing industry and segmented industries,and calculates the competitiveness RCA_VD index based on forward linkage.The research shows:1)the manufacturing level of Brazil is in a relatively upstream position.China s manufacturing sector is moving towards the upstream of GVC and remains at the low end.India s manufacturing sector is declining and is heavily dependent on manufacturing imports.Russia s manufacturing sector is at the top;2)China s low-tech industries are relatively downstream,while India s low-tech and medium-tech industries are obviously downstream.China s high-tech industries are moving closer to the upstream,while Russia s is in the upstream of all industries;3)Brazil s low-technology industries have comparative advantages,while high-technology industries have obvious disadvantages.All industries in China have comparative advantages.India s low-tech,medium-tech and low-tech industries have comparative advantages,while its high-tech industries have obvious disadvantages.Russia s low-and medium-technology industries have comparative advantages,while the rest have obvious competitive disadvantages and uneven development.There is no significant linear relationship between a country s manufacturing scale,comparative advantage and GVCS participation and status.