产业链视角下国际金属价格冲击的行业传导效应（英文）

Industrial transmission effect of international metal price shocks in perspective of industry chain

基于产业链的新视角,采用2006年2月至2015年12月的月度数据,选择中国8个工业行业以构建反映金属产业链内在联系的SVAR模型,分析国际金属价格冲击对我国金属产业链各个环节产出的直接效应与间接效应,在此基础上通过分解上中下游行业的通货膨胀来源,考察国际金属价格冲击的传导路径。结果显示:国际金属价格冲击对我国工业行业产出不仅具有直接的消极影响,而且还通过推升产品价格指数(PPI)、促使紧缩性货币政策的实施间接影响工业行业产出;受我国市场需求不足、价格传导机制阻滞等因素的影响,国际金属价格冲击的直接效应主要集中在上中游行业,下游行业则主要受间接效应的影响;此外,国际金属价格冲击对我国工业行业通胀具有溢出效应,这种价格冲击效应沿着产业链的上游往下游进行单向传导,并且强度依次减弱。

Based on a new perspective of industry chain and selecting monthly data from February2006to December2015,this paper chooses eight Chinese industrial sectors to construct a SVAR model reflecting internal relationships among metal chains,analyzes the direct effects and indirect effects of international metal prices on output of various links in metal chains,then it investigates the main transmission path of international metal price shocks through decomposing the inflation pressure sources in metal chains.The results show that international metal price shocks not only affect industrial output in a direct way,but also indirectly affect the growth of output through the increased pressure on industrial inflation and then triggering a tightening of monetary policy implementation.Affected by factors such as the lack of market demand and the price transmission mechanism blocking,the direct effects of international metal price shocks mainly impact the upstream and midstream industry,while the downstream industry is mainly affected by indirect effects;in addition,the international metal price shocks have spillover effects on the industrial inflation,and transmit along the industry chain from upstream to downstream,and their strength weakens in sequence.