信用卡循环负债如何影响居民消费

How does Revolving Credit Card Debt Affect Household Spending?

本文利用中国家庭金融调查数据(CHFS)实证研究了信用卡循环负债对居民消费的影响。结果显示,信用卡循环负债规模及比率均与持卡人消费支出之间呈现显著的"倒U型"关系,且边际消费贡献遵循递减规律;安全的、可持续的私人最优卡债规模约为1.884万元、最优卡债收入比约为95.8%、最优卡债资产比约为7.7%。进一步比较分析发现,信用卡循环负债与消费支出之间的"倒U型"关系表现稳健,但会因拆迁与否、城乡户籍、产品类别差异而呈现出异质性。最后,基于反事实框架的因果中介效应分析发现,信用卡循环负债通过平稳效应、扩张效应和浮幻效应三条路径影响持卡人消费决策,其中平稳效应是主路径,扩张效应和浮幻效应是辅路径;信用卡循环负债经由三者构成的串联机制导致持卡人额外消费了约1.0248万元。研究结论对我国卡债风险预警与管控具有借鉴意义。

Using China Household Finance Survey(CHFS)data,this paper investigates the impact of revolving credit card debt on household spending.Empirically,a sharp and significant“inverted U-shaped”relationship between credit card debt and household spending is revealed,indicating the law of diminishing marginal contribution works.The sustainably optimal debt level is18,840Yuan while the optimal debt-income ratio and debt-asset ratio is95.8%and7.7%respectively.Furthermore,the“inverted U-shaped”relationship between credit card debt and household spending is established in robustness tests but varies with demolition,household registration and product category.The causal mediation effect analysis based on counterfactuals identifies a series of mechanism combining smoothing effect,expanding effect and illusion effect,through which revolving credit card debt causes an extra spending of10,248Yuan on average.More specifically,the smoothing effect is the main pathway while expanding effect and illusion effect are alternative pathways.