货币政策对金融稳定的时变特征研究

The Time-varying Characteristics of the Impact of Monetary Policy on Financial Stability

美国次贷危机爆发以来,金融稳定成为国际社会重点关注的问题。本文从金融基础指标中拟合出我国金融稳定性指数,通过TVP-VAR模型分析货币政策和与金融稳定之间的时变特征,发现货币政策与金融稳定之间存在显著的阶段性特征,适度宽松的货币政策能够有效提高金融稳定性;数量型货币政策的调控效应显著优于价格型政策,政策当局在调控过程中仍以数量型政策为主;货币政策对金融稳定的调控效应更加表现为一种长期效应,货币当局应着眼于维持金融体系长期的稳定性,采取相对稳健的货币政策并保持货币政策的延续性,从而为公众树立良好预期。

Since the US broke-out the sub-prime crisis,financial stability has become the emphases attention problem.In this paper,the financial stability index of China is fitted from a series of basic indexes and the time-varying characteristics of the mechanism of monetary policy and financial stability are studied through the TVP-VAR model.The empirical results show that:the mechanism between monetary policy and financial stability has remarkable stage characteristics,at the current stage,the moderately loose monetary policy can effectively improve financial stability;the regulation effect of quantitative monetary policy is significantly higher than price-based one,so policy authorities should put the quantitative monetary policy as main means when they are regulating financial stability;the effect of monetary policy on the financial stability is more a long-term effect,therefore the monetary authorities should focus on maintaining the long-term stability of the financial system,take a relatively prudent monetary policy and maintain the continuity of the monetary policy,so as to establish a good expectations for the public.