中国资本管制有效性的再检验

The Re-inspection of the Capital Control's Effectiveness in China

新时代下,自贸区的大范围设立,对资本管制的效率及提升策略提出了新的要求。文章利用中国2002年—2016年的季度数据,选取资本流动规模、人民币汇率、股票价格、外汇占款、国内外利差五个变量,通过建立VAR模型对中国资本管制的有效性进行了实证检验,结合脉冲响应分析,论文得到以下结论:总体而言,中国的资本管制可以取得较好的短期效果,但长期来看,有效性并不显著;另外,资本管制政策的实施还依赖于国内外经济发展环境,一般地,在经济处于稳定时期,可适当放松管制,而当经济出现剧烈波动时,资本管制政策应该加强。

In the new era,the establishment of FTA has put forward new requirements for the efficiency and promotion strategy of capital control.Using the quarterly data from 2002 to 2016 in China,by the VAR model,this paper selects five variables to test the effectiveness of China’s capital control,what is the scale of capital flow,RMB exchange rate,stock prices,the occupied foreign exchange,domestic and foreign spreads.And the paper draws the following conclusions:In the short-term,the effectiveness of China’s capital control is significant,but not in the long run;the polity of capital control is also dependent on the economic environment at home and abroad.Generally,when the economic is stable,capital control can be deregulated,and vice versa.