2016年上海市浦东新区肺结核发病空间聚集性扫描分析

The spatial scan analysis of pulmonary tuberculosis in Pudong New District,Shanghai(2016)

目的 探索2016年上海市浦东新区肺结核病发病的空间聚焦性。方法 肺结核的发病数据来源于中国疾控中心传染病信息报告系统,浦东新区各街镇的人口数来源于上海浦东统计年鉴,街镇的边界地图使用国家测绘局2015年版shp格式的地图数据。空间自相关分析采用GeoDa1.6.7软件进行分析,空间权重矩阵使用Rookcontiguity(车相邻)方式。采用SaTScan9.4.4软件泊松模型进行圆形空间扫描,最大扫描范围为8%的危险人口、最大距离8km,使用采用ArcGIS10.5将扫描结果可视化。采用FleXScan3.1.2软件Poisson模型进行不规则空间聚集扫描,聚集的空间数目最多设置为6。检验水准α取0.05。结果 2016年上海市浦东新区肺结核报告发病1058人,发病率为28.79/10万。全局自相关Moran′sI指数为0.324,P=0.002。局部空间自相关热点区域包括北蔡、曹路、浦兴、高桥、金桥、沪东,冷点区域包括书院、南汇、老港、泥城。SaTScan圆形空间聚集扫描一类聚集区包括万详、书院、泥城和大团,二类聚集区包括浦兴、沪东和金桥,三类聚集区包括唐桥、潍坊和南码,四类聚集区包括新场和宣桥,五类聚集区包括高东和高行。FleXScan不规则空间聚集扫描聚集区包括高东、高行、金桥和浦兴。结论 上海市浦东新区2016年肺结核的发病具有空间聚集性,不同空间聚集性扫描方法所得到的结果具有一定的差异。

Objective To exploring the Spatial Focus of Tuberculosis in 2016 in Pudong New Area of Shanghai. Methods The data of incidence of tuberculosis came from China CDC infectious disease reporting information system of Pudong New Area,the town population from the Shanghai Pudong Statistical Yearbook,the street map of the town using the State Bureau of Surveying and Mapping 2015 version shp format map data.Spatial autocorrelation analysis using GeoDa1.6.7 software for analysis,the spatial weight matrix using Rook contiguity approach.Circular space scans were conducted using the SaTScan 9.4.4 software Poisson model,with a maximum range of 8%of the population being scanned at a maximum distance of 8km,using ArcGIS 10.5 to visualize the results of the scan.Using the FleXScan 3.1.2 software Poisson model for irregular spatial aggregation scanning,the maximum number of spatial aggregation set to 6.Test level ato take 0.05. Results It’s reported 1 058 cases of tuberculosis in 2016 in Pudong New Area of Shangha,with an incidence rate of 28.79/lakh.The global autocorrelation Moran′s I index was 0.324,P=0.002.Local hot spots include Bei Cai,Cao Lu,Pu Xing,Gao Qiao,Jin Qiao,Hudong and cold spots including the Shuyuan,Nanhui,Laogang and Nicheng.SaTScan round space aggregation scanning one type of gathering area includes Wanxiang,Shuyuan,Nicheng and Datuan,the second type of gathering area includes Puxing,Hudong and Jinqiao,three types of gathering areas including Tangqiao,Weifang and Nanma,the four type of gathering area includes Xinchang and Xuanqiao,and the five type of gathering area includes Gao Dong and Gao Hang.The FleXScan irregular space aggregation scan that aggregation zone includes Godong,Gaohang,Jinqiao and Puxing. Conclusion The incidence of Pulmonary Tuberculosis in Pudong New Area of Shanghai in 2016 has spatial aggregation,and the results obtained by different spatial aggregation scanning methods have certain differences.