基于层次分析法的碳汇林经营风险评价

The Evaluation of Carbon Forest Management Risks Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process

为获得碳汇收益与达成应对气候变化的目标,对碳汇林经营进行风险识别与管理具有重要的实践价值。通过实地调研与文献分析,发现碳汇林在经营过程中面临着自然风险、人为风险、政策风险与市场风险四大类风险。利用专家评分与层次分析法进一步对碳汇林面临的风险进行识别与评估,通过构造判断矩阵并利用MATLAB R2013b进行分析,结果表明碳汇林经营中最主要的风险来自于政策风险(0.51)和市场风险(0.31)。对18种具体风险因素进行综合总权重评估计算的结果表明,碳排放权交易政策(0.245)、碳市场价格(0.202)与森林碳汇交易政策(0.133)是对碳汇林经营影响最大的3种风险因素。

In order to obtain the benefit of carbon sequestration and achieve the goal of mitigating climate change,it is of great practical value to identify and manage the risks of carbon forest.It is found that the carbon forest face four major risks in the management process through field research and literature analysis.The risks include the natural risks,the human-induced risks,the policy risks,and the market risks.It uses the expert scoring and the analytic hierarchy process to further identify and evaluate the risks faced by carbon forests.By constructing a judgment matrix and using MATLAB R2013b for analysis,the results show that the risks of carbon forest management process mainly come from policy risks(0.51)and market risks(0.31).The evaluation of the total comprehensive weight of 18 specific risk factors shows that the policy of carbon emissions trading scheme(0.245),the price of carbon market(0.202)and the policy of forest carbon trading(0.133)are the three factors that strongly affect carbon forest management.