世界人口生育率变化及其影响因素分析——兼论对中国未来生育率的判断

Research on Changes and Its Influencing Factors of the World's Population Fertility:The Judgment of Chinese Future Fertility

世界总和生育率呈现下降的趋势,不论发达国家还是发展中国家;同时发达国家的生育率并非持续下降,欧洲的总和生育率在2004年达到谷底之后有所上升,北美洲的总和生育率持续下降。本文采用UN数据库中总和生育率、人均收入、老龄化和抚养比等数据,使用面板数据的随机效应模型和固定效应模型对北美、大洋洲、东欧、非洲、拉丁美洲、欧洲和亚洲等七个区域总和生育率的影响因素进行估计,结果发现:七个区域的总和生育率和人均收入的线性模型均显示生育率与人均收入成反向关系。北美洲、大洋洲、东欧、非洲、拉丁美洲、西欧的总和生育率和人均收入呈现U型关系,而亚洲的总和生育率和人均收入呈现倒U型关系。预测发现:即使人均收入不断增长和实施积极的生育政策,中国生育率的下降趋势依然是很难逆转的。

The world’s total fertility rate showed a trend of decline,no matter in developed countries or developing countries.The fertility rate in developed countries is not continued to decline,the total fertility rate in Europe in 2004 after the bottom has increased,but the North America’s total fertility rate continued to decline.By UN database in the total fertility rate,per capita income,aging and the dependency ratio data,using random effect model and fixed effects model of panel data in North America,Oceania,Eastern Europe,Africa,Latin America,Europe and Asia,it estimates the influence factors of total fertility rate.The results showed that:the total fertility rate and per capita income of the seven areas shows a reverse relationship with fertility and per capita income;And the u-shaped relation with the total fertility rate and per captia income was shown in North America,Oceania,eastern Europe,Africa,Latin America,Western Europe,while Asia’s total fertility rate and per capita income appear inverted u-shaped relationship.It is hard to reverse the decline in fertility trend in China.