基于矩形法的交通拥堵传播模型研究

A Study of the Traffic Congestion Propagation Model Based on the Rectangle Method

准确分析交通拥堵传播特征是预测交通拥堵状态进而解决拥堵问题的先决条件。首先结合实际交通状态,提出速度延伸判别指数(ESDI),并将道路拥堵状态划分为5个等级,界定各等级阈值,构造拥堵马赛克时空图。提出矩形法绘制规则,建立交通拥堵演变的传播模型分析法,研究拥堵和消散传播规律与特征,有效计算传播速度。最后以重庆市黄花园大桥为例进行建模验证,研究表明,基于ESDI的道路交通状态判别方法能正确划分路段所处拥堵状态,基于矩形法的交通拥堵传播模型能有效得到道路拥堵演变特征,包括常发或偶发性拥堵、消散的起止时间、传播速度及发生原因等。

Traffic congestion problems affect people's travel efficiency.Accurate analysis of traffic congestion propagation characteristics is a prerequisite for predicting traffic and solving traffic congestion problems.This paper proposes the Extended Speed Distinguish Index(ESDI)based on the actual traffic status,divides the traffic status into five levels and defines the thresholds of each level to construct congestion mosaic time-space diagrams.Then the paper proposes the drawing rules of the‘rectangle method’,establishes the propagation analytical method to model the evolution of traffic congestion,studies laws and characteristics of congestion and dissipation,and effectively calculates the propagation speed.Finally,a road segment in Chongqing is used as an example to analyze and verify the proposed model.The results show that the ESDI-based traffic status discrimination method can correctly determine the congestion status on a road segment.The results also show that the traffic congestion propagation model based on the‘rectangle method’can effectively model the traffic congestion evolution characteristics,including the start and end times,the propagation speed and the causes of recurring and non-recurring traffic congestions.