环境空气质量预报预警系统模式及不确定性成因与改进

Uncertainty Causes and Improvement of Environmental Air Quality Forecasting and Early Warning System Model

重雾霾天的增多使得建立环境空气质量预报预警系统迫不可待。概述了全国环境空气质量预报预警系统的建设情况,介绍了统计预报模式、数值预报模式和集合预报模式的发展情况,分析了造成预报预警系统不确定性的原因及改进方向。

The increase of heavy haze days makes it imperative to establish an environmental air quality forecast and early warning system.This paper summarized the construction of the national environmental air quality forecasting and early warning system,introduced the development of statistical forecasting mode,numerical forecasting mode and ensemble forecasting mode,and analyzed the uncertainty causes and improvement directions of the forecasting and early warning system.