出口信用保险影响下的出口贸易高质量发展研究——以浙江省为例

Research on the High Quality Development of Export under the Influence of Export Credit Insurance——Evidence from Zhejiang Province

在中美贸易摩擦日渐加剧的背景下,出口信用保险成为出口企业重要的避险工具,在出口企业转嫁出口风险、提高风控水平、补偿企业损失、优化资源配置等多方面发挥重要作用。文章采用2003-2016年浙江省出口贸易数据及保险数据(均不含宁波),通过统计分析、构建理论模型及实证检验,试图进一步明确出口信用保险影响出口贸易的作用机制。研究结果表明:在出口信用保险计划下,国际信用评级的存在、投保概率的增加、对出口企业损失的赔偿均可增加浙江省企业的货款回收概率,从而优化出口资源配置、提高出口水平。实证检验证明了以上结论,并发现在面临金融危机时,浙江省出口信用保险对出口的促进作用尤为显著,随着金融危机影响的逐步减小,其作用依然显著。

With the intensifying of China-US trade friction,the export credit insurance has become the critical hedging tool for export enterprises,which plays the pivotal role in transferring export risks,improving risk control level,compensating enterprise loss and optimizing resource allocation.This paper takes advantage of Zhejiang s export trade data and export credit insurance statistics from 2003 to 2016(both excluding Ningbo),and attempts to figure out how export credit insurance affects the transmission mechanism of export trade through a series of statistical analysis,theoretical construction models and empirical tests.The research results show that the existence of international credit rating,the increasing in the probability of insurance coverage and the compensation for the losses of export enterprises can increase the probability of payment collection,then enhance the export resource allocation and improve the export standard.The empirical test proves the above conclusions and finds that in the face of the financial crisis,the promotion of export credit insurance on export trade features prominently.As the impact of the financial crisis gradually decreases,its influence is still significant.