论中俄美新三角关系

Research on the New Triangular Relationship between China, Russia and the U. S.

中俄美新三角关系是客观现实,它在性质、结构、内容、功能、影响力等方面都与历史上的中美苏"大三角"有所不同。中俄美关系没有已确定的变化轨道,现阶段它的前景仍具有开放性。中俄美新三角的变化有多个变量,它们可分为背景性变量和直接变量两大类。中俄美三角的变化不是机械的、孤立的、线性的,而是取决于多个变量的相互作用。中俄美三角在理论上存在多个可能的模式,模式的确定不仅是主观的选择,在更大程度上取决于形势和现实需要。联盟具有工具属性,理论上没必要把它从外交工具库中完全排除。在中俄美关系中,中俄结伴不结盟是黄金模式,联盟只能是迫不得已的形势下的选择。中俄结盟即意味着美国已是公开的敌人,虽然通过联盟可以减轻它的威胁,但一个大国成为敌人本身就构成巨大战略压力。对中国来讲,防止出现敌人尤其是不使伙伴变成敌人是更大的战略成功,能与其他两国都保持更好关系则是更高外交境界。虽然中俄结盟的可能性很小,但如果中美和俄美关系持续恶化,形势有可能把中俄推向某种亚联盟状态。中国拒绝冷战思维和"零和游戏",但可以合理、有效、建设性地运用中俄美三角结构。

The new triangular relationships between China,Russia and the U. S. differ from the former "Great Triangle " between China,the U. S. and Soviet Union in terms of the attribute,structure,content,function and sphere of influence. Currently,the new one has not established clear changing track,which means its prospect is still open,whose change is not mechanical,isolated or linear,but depends on the multiple variables. In theory,alliance is not necessary to be completely excluded from the diplomatic tool library,however,a China-Russia partnership rather than a China-Russia alliance is a golden model. And the alliance can only be a choice in a pinch,which means the United States is already an open enemy. It is a greater strategic success for China to prevent the emergence of enemies,especially the turning of partners into enemies. Although there is little possibility of an alliance,China and Russia might be forced to form a kind of sub-alliance,if the China-U. S. and Russia-U. S. relationship continue to deteriorate. China rejects the mentality of the Cold War and zero-sum,but it could take advantage of the triangular structure rationally,effectively and constructively.