俄罗斯第二产业的结构变迁与现状解析

Analysis on the Structural Changes and Status Quo of Russia's Secondary Industry

本文在历史与现实的比较中讨论俄罗斯第二产业结构变迁问题。苏联时期长期实行优先发展重工业的产业政策是与当时的具体历史环境和理论认识分不开的,其后果是俄罗斯第二产业结构长期不能摆脱原材料化问题进而实现"优化"。但是,当代俄罗斯实施产业政策的环境与苏联时期相比已大为不同。在新的历史背景下,基于俄罗斯的资源禀赋——自然资源丰裕、资本和劳动力相对短缺,其经济的比较优势在于发展油气行业为代表的资源产业。俄罗斯在约束条件下大力发展油气产业有其经济合理性。也就是说,俄罗斯的第二产业以能源为核心,其产业结构以能源原材料为主体,是一个符合经济规律的经济现象,俄罗斯的产业政策没必要也没条件追求旨在人为改变这种状况的产业结构。

This paper discusses the structural changes of Russia’s secondary industry in the comparison of history and reality.Taking the development of heavy industry as the priority in the Soviet period was inseparable from the historical environment and theoretical cognition at that time.The consequence of this industrial policy is that the structure of Russia’s secondary industry has long failed to achieve optimization and get rid of the raw materials orientation problem.Given the new historical context and Russia’s resource endowment-abundant natural resources,relatively short capital and labor,its economic comparative advantage lies in the development of the resource industry,for example the oil and gas industry.The priority of oil and gas industry under multiple constraints certainly makes sense.That is to say,Russia’s secondary industry is centered on energy,and its industrial structure is dominated by energy and raw materials,which accords with the economic laws very well.It is not necessary or unconditional to artificially change this industrial structure.