俄罗斯为什么要提高退休年龄?——基于OLG模型的实证分析

Why Would Russia Raise the Retirement Age? ——An Empirical Analysis of OLG Model

在人口结构转变和老龄化背景下,俄罗斯、中国和大多数经济合作与发展组织(OECD)国家都出现了少子老龄化的发展趋势。这对社会经济发展尤其是劳动力市场供求平衡及社会保障财政可持续性造成了严重冲击。根据OLG养老金均衡模型,人口参数和制度参数(老年抚养比、养老金替代率和退休年龄等)是决定养老金均衡的主要参数。在其他参数保持不变的条件下,提高退休年龄将有助于提高劳动力参与率和改善养老金长期收支均衡。目前,俄罗斯退休年龄与OECD国家相比明显偏低。基于此,俄罗斯政府决定从2019年开始逐步提高退休年龄,以实现劳动力市场供求平衡和改善养老金收支均衡及保持公共财政可持续性。虽然普京政府提高退休年龄的方案遭到了俄罗斯民众的强烈反对和抗议,但修正后的改革方案缓解了政治危机,预计将获得议会正式通过并在2019年开始实施。俄罗斯的改革经验对于同样面临少子老龄化问题的中国来说,具有十分重要的借鉴价值。

Russia,China and most OECD countries have witnessed the phenomenon of fewer children and more aged people,which exerts a significant impact on the socio-economic development,especially the balance of supply and demand in the labor market and the financial sustainability of social security.According to the OLG pension equilibrium model,population parameters and institutional parameters are the main determinants that affect pension equilibrium.Raising the retirement age will help to increase the participation rate of labor force and improve the long-term balance of pensions if the other parameters remain unchanged.Hence,the Russian government decided to gradually raise the retirement age from2019to achieve a balance between supply and demand in the labor market,improve the balance of pensions as well as maintain public finances.Although the Putin government’s plan to raise the retirement age was strongly opposed and protested by the Russian people,the revised reform plan eased the political crisis and is expected to be officially adopted by the House of Representatives and thus implemented in2019.Russia’s reform experience is of great value to China.