丝绸之路经济带沿线国家贸易联系、影响因素及效率研究——基于社会网络分析与随机前沿引力模型的实证研究

Trade Links,Factors and Efficiency of Countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt: An Empirical Research Based on Social Network Analysis and Stochastic Frontier Gracity Model

本文通过社会网络分析法剖析了丝绸之路经济带沿线23个国家贸易联系,在此基础上运用随机前沿引力模型选取中心度稳居第一的中国作为研究对象国,剖析了贸易联系的影响因素及效率。结果表明:第一,贸易联系:沿线国家贸易往来愈加紧密;中国在贸易网络中占据主导地位,经济影响力不断上升;其他国家的贸易影响力升降不一。第二,影响因素:GDP总量对进口、出口和总贸易的正效应显著,距离和政治风险负效应显著;人口总量对出口贸易正效应显著却对进口贸易有显著负效应,共同边界对总贸易和进口贸易负效应显著;上合组织对出口和总贸易正效应显著;WTO对总贸易和进口贸易正效应显著;进口关税水平对出口贸易负效应显著。第三,贸易效率:中国与沿线国家整体贸易效率年均增幅达2%以上,贸易规模仍有较大的增长空间;中国对沿线国家贸易不平衡现象突出。

This article has analyzed trade links among the countries along Silk Road Economic Belt by social network analytical method.Taking China,which ranks first steadily in the centrality test,as object of this study,it has studied the influencing factors and efficiency of trade links by the stochastic frontier model.Results are as follows.Firstly,trade links of countries along the SREB become more closely;China takes a dominant position in trade networks and its economic influence is increasing greatly;Secondly,the level of economic development,market size of countries along the SREB,the target country’s level of economic development,SCO has obviously positively effected on both import and export,and the third one plays a decisive role.Factors,such as distance,common borders and political risks,have a negative impact;Tariffs constrain export;Clearance time constrains imports and total trade.Thirdly,the growth of overall trade efficiency is increasing more than2%annually;There is still a large room to expand the trade scale.