轮回:中美关系与亚太秩序演变(1978～2018)

Cycle: China-U.S. Relations and the Evolution of the Asia-Pacific Order

亚太地区的和平与繁荣已经持续40年,其开端是1978年12月中美建交,那之后亚太地区形势的变化同中美关系起伏动荡和向前发展等,也基本是同步的。从历史角度看,2018年开始以贸易冲突为中心的中美关系的急剧和系统性恶化,其严重程度和目前呈现的演变趋势的确令世界瞩目。未来的发展很可能证明,亚太地区正在经历又一个"划时代",中美关系将在以争斗为主调的演变中形成一种"新范式",并给亚太秩序带来严重影响。

Peace and prosperity in the Asia-Pacific have lasted for four decades.It began in December 1978 when China and the United States established formal diplomatic relations. Thereafter,the dynamic strategic landscape in the Asia-Pacific arena basically followed the ups and downs of China-U.S.relations amid its moving forward. Examined from a historical perspective,the drastically shifting bilateral relations resulting from the conflict over trade beginning in 2018 has brought about serious consequences,which together with its current evolution,have attracted the attention of the world.The future might bring a new epoch in the Asian-Pacific arena and a more competitive China-U. S. relationship that could evolve into a "new paradigm"and have serious consequences for the future of the Asian-Pacific order.